炸金花的实战解析Analysis of the actual combat of fried golden flower
Analysis of the actual combat of fried golden flower
当两个玩家面对面对质的时候，玩到这份上，双方基本可以确定对手至少是金花。在不确定双方的牌的情况下，假如我们是一个客观的研究者，这时候输赢概率各占一半的牌是什么牌呢?经过概率计算 这时候Q14是临界牌 也就是说，拿到了这个牌，你输赢的概率刚好各占一半。
Let's start by looking at singles hands, which are the most likely hand to play, and they are also a common type of hand used by bluffers.
In singles cards, the cards led by A have the highest probability of appearing, as high as 25.61%. This probability is only for singles cards. If both cards are singles, then the odds of winning with the cards led by A are much higher, and the odds of winning with the cards led by K are much lower. Both are singles cards. If a player's hand is K98, then this player has exactly half the probability of winning or losing compared to the other player holding a singles card. If you lead a team below K, the probability of losing is much higher.
Why is the probability of A leading a team much higher than other singles cards? In fact, this is easy to understand. For a hand like AK9, we say that A leads the team, not K, let alone 9, because A is the largest . When A leads the team, there are many types of cards to choose from, so it has a high probability of appearing. The smaller the cards that lead the team, the fewer types of cards that can be formed.So the probability is less.
In the same way, the probability of A gold appearing in the golden flower is the largest, that is to say, the larger the golden flower, the greater the probability of appearing. This is a very paradoxical place for cheating golden flowers. In our impression, the more difficult the card should be, the bigger the card should be. But this is not the case in cheating golden suits. The probability of golden suits appearing is higher than that of straights. Although the straight cards are more rare than golden suits, they are still not as big as golden suits.
According to this rule, we know that the probability of small golden flowers appearing is very small, and once golden flowers appear, the greater possibility is large golden flowers. Then if you have a small golden suit, and you basically decide that your opponent is also a golden suit, then even the golden suit has to fold. If you don't understand this rule, you will definitely be reluctant to discard the golden flower card.
Fraud Jinhua, to put it bluntly, is the feeling of heartbeat when Jinhua appears. So do you know the probability of various golden flowers appearing?
The probability of A gold appearing is 23.36%;
The probability of occurrence of K gold and above (K and A) is 43.07%;
The probability of appearing Q gold and above is 59.12%;
The probability of J gold and above is 71.90%;
The probability of appearing with 10 gold and above is 81.75%;
The probability of appearing 9 gold and above is 89.05%;
The probability of occurrence of 8 gold and above is 94.16%;
The probability of appearing 7 gold and above is 97.45%;
The probability of appearing 6 gold and above is 99.27%;
The probability of 5 gold and above is 100%.
It is impossible to appear smaller than 5 gold, only 234 smaller than 5 gold, once there is a 234 gold flower, it is a straight flush, which is what we often call a straight gold.
What can we see from this probability table? What kind of inspiration can we get? First of all, when the golden flower meets the golden flower, it is a very dangerous thing. For example, you got a "Gold", you think this should be not small, but according to the rate, if someone else is also a golden flower, the probability of others winning you should be more than half, which means that the gold is really nothing. . Both are golden flowers, only if you get K gold, the probability of winning will be higher.
Big, don't think that getting Q gold or J gold is anything special, there are more chances for others to be bigger than you! If a player does not understand the probability problem, he will definitely have a wrong understanding. Take the author as an example, when he used to play cheating gold flowers, he was easily misled by the cards in his hand. The cards are very large, even if others are golden flowers, it is more difficult to be bigger than the queen of gold. But in fact, this is not the case. If others are also golden flowers, the probability of being bigger than Q gold is quite large. Knowing this probability is very helpful for your actual combat. This is often the case in gold cheats, where there are only two players left at the end of the game, and the stacks on the table are very high. Everyone is very clear that the cards of these two players are at least above the golden flower, that is to say, there is no golden flower that will not play this. So, at such a decisive juncture, how to judge the cards in the opponent's hand, if the opponent is a golden flower, what kind of golden flower is it?
The probability of a leopard and a straight flush is very small, it only occurs once in two hundred decks, so it is unlikely. In fact, whether the opponent has caught the leopard or Shunjin can be judged from the appearance. Leopards and Shun Metals are in monster cards. If you get this kind of card, you will basically not lose. Once a player gets this kind of card, his expression will definitely be abnormal. As far as the author's experience is concerned, players who have won Leopard or Shunjin either tremble slightly when placing bets, or appear very restrained and dare not speak or do unnecessary actions, for fear of excessive words and harm. Actions reveal the secrets of the cards.
When two players confront each other face to face, both sides can basically be sure that the opponent is at least Jinhua. In the case of uncertainty about the cards of both sides, if we are an objective researcher, what is the card with half the probability of winning or losing? After the probability calculation, Q14 is a critical card. That is to say, we got this card. , your odds of winning and losing are exactly 50/50.
In other words, if your hand is lower than the QJ4 golden suit, then you are very dangerous, and you will lose 80% of the time. Why do you say 80%? Didn't you just say that the probability of winning and losing is half? Winning or losing is half, that is on the basis of determining that the opponent is at least Jinhua, but in fact, at the end of the card battle, the table is full of chips. At this time, The other party is definitely not a small golden flower! Even if you don't understand the probability, you should be able to judge that the other party is at least K gold at this time, and it is very likely that it is KQ gold or A gold. So, our advice to you is, if you are king gold, open the card and don't spend it with him. If you are ace gold you can play two hands, and if your opponent doesn't show, then you have to show it quickly. Of course, whether to open or not also depends on the character of the opponent. If your opponent is a conservative, the sooner you open the better; if your opponent is the kind of belligerent who likes to go deep alone, play with him a little longer.
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