炸金花的实战解析
Analysis of the actual combat of fried golden flower
我们先来看看单打牌，单打牌是出现概率最高的一种牌，而且它们也是诈唬玩家经常使用的牌型。在单打牌中，A带队的牌出现的概率最高，高达25.61%，这个概率仅仅是就单打牌来说的。如果两家都是单打牌，那么A带队的牌赢的胜算要大很多，K带队的牌赢的胜算就要下降很多。两家都是单打牌，如果一个玩家的牌是K98，那么这个玩家跟另外一个持有单打牌的玩家相比，他的输赢概率恰好各占一半。如果你是K以下带队的话，输的概率就大很多了。
为什么A带队的牌概率要远远高于其他的单打牌呢?其实这个很好理解，AK9这样的牌我们说是A带队，而不是K带队，更不是9带队，因为A最大。A带队时，可以选择的牌的种类就很多，所以它出现的概率就大。带队的牌越小，所能够组成的牌的种类就越少,所以概率就越小。
同理，在金花中A金出现的概率是最大的，也就是说越大的金花出现的概率反而越大。这是诈金花非常吊诡的地方，在我们的印象中，越难出现的牌应该越大才对，正所谓物以稀为贵，牌也应该以稀为大。但诈金花中不是这样的，金花出现的概率比顺子要大,顺子牌虽然比金花更难得，但还是没金花大。
根据这个规律，我们知道，小金花出现的概率是非常小的,旦出现金花，更大的可能是大金花。那么如果你拿到了一个小金花，而你又基本上断定对手也是金花时，这时候即使是金花也得弃牌。如果你不了解这个规律，拿到金花牌肯定不舍得丢弃。诈金花，说白了玩的就是金花出现时那种让人心跳的感觉。那你知道各种金花出现的概率吗? 马来西亚在线网赌破解干扰器香港joker游戏外挂干扰器美国打鱼老虎机机干扰器
A金出现的概率是23.36%;
K金及以上(K和A)出现的概率是43.07%;
Q金及以上出现的概率是59.12%;
J金及以上出现的概率是71.90%;
10金及以上出现的概率是81.75%;
9金及以上出现的概率是89.05%;
8金及以上出现的概率是94.16%;
7金及以上出现的概率是97.45%;
6金及以上出现的概率是99.27%;
5金及以上的概率是100%。
不可能出现比5金小的，比5金小的只有234，一旦有234的金花，那就是同花顺了，也就是我们常说的顺金。从这个概率表中我们能看出什么呢?又能受到什么样的启发呢?首先有一点，当金花遇上了金花，是非常危险的一件事情。比如说吧，你拿到了一个」金，你觉得这个应该不小了吧，但根据率，如果别人也是金花的话，别人赢你的概率要在一半以上，也就是说金真的不算什么。同是金花，你只有拿到K金，赢的概率才会更大，千万不要以为拿到了Q金或是J金有什么了不起，别人比你大的机会多着呢!一个玩家如果不了解其中的概率问题，一定会产生错误的认识，就拿作者来说，以前玩诈金花时，也很容易被手中的牌误导，比如拿到了一个Q金就已经觉得自己的牌很大，别人即使是金花，要想比Q金更大,那也是比较难的。但事实上，不是这么回事，如果别人也是金花，比Q金大的概率是相当大的。
了解这个概率，对你的实战非常有帮助。在诈金花中经常出现这样的情况，玩到最后只剩下两个玩家了，桌面上的筹码堆得非常高。大家都很清楚，这两个玩家的牌至少在金花以上，也就是说，没有金花不会玩到这份上。那么，在这样一个决战的关头，如何判断对手手中的牌，如果对手是金花，究竟是什么样的金花呢?
豹子和同花顺的概率非常小，两百副牌才出现一次，所以不太可能。其实，对手是否抓到了豹子或是顺金，这个从外表上是可以判断出来的。豹子和顺金属于怪物牌，拿到这种牌基本上不会输的，一个玩家一旦拿到这种牌，他的表情肯定会有异状。就作者的经验来说，拿到豹子或顺金的玩家要么下注的时候手微微颤抖，要么就是显得非常克制，不敢说话或是做多余的动作，怕过多的话和动作泄露了牌的秘密。
当两个玩家面对面对质的时候，玩到这份上，双方基本可以确定对手至少是金花。在不确定双方的牌的情况下，假如我们是一个客观的研究者，这时候输赢概率各占一半的牌是什么牌呢?经过概率计算 这时候Q14是临界牌 也就是说，拿到了这个牌，你输赢的概率刚好各占一半。
换句话说，如果你的牌比QJ4金花要小，那么你就很危险的,八成是会输的。为什么说八成呢，刚才不是说输赢概率各占一半吗?输赢占一半，那是在确定对手至少是金花的基础上，但其实玩牌战斗到最后，桌上堆满了筹码，这时候，对方肯定不会是小金花啊!即使你不懂概率，你也应该可以判断出这时候对方至少是K金，很有可能是KQ金或是A金。所以，我们给你的建议是，如果你是K金就开牌，不要跟他耗下去了。如果你是A金还可以玩两把，如果对手不开牌，那你就要赶快开牌了。当然，开不开牌也要根据对方的性格来定。如果对手是保守派，你越快开牌越好;如果对手是那种喜欢孤军深入的好战之人，可以跟他多周旋一会。
Let's start by looking at singles hands, which are the most likely hand to play, and they are also a common type of hand used by bluffers.
In singles cards, the cards led by A have the highest probability of appearing, as high as 25.61%. This probability is only for singles cards. If both cards are singles, then the odds of winning with the cards led by A are much higher, and the odds of winning with the cards led by K are much lower. Both are singles cards. If a player's hand is K98, then this player has exactly half the probability of winning or losing compared to the other player holding a singles card. If you lead a team below K, the probability of losing is much higher.
Why is the probability of A leading a team much higher than other singles cards? In fact, this is easy to understand. For a hand like AK9, we say that A leads the team, not K, let alone 9, because A is the largest . When A leads the team, there are many types of cards to choose from, so it has a high probability of appearing. The smaller the cards that lead the team, the fewer types of cards that can be formed.So the probability is less.
In the same way, the probability of A gold appearing in the golden flower is the largest, that is to say, the larger the golden flower, the greater the probability of appearing. This is a very paradoxical place for cheating golden flowers. In our impression, the more difficult the card should be, the bigger the card should be. But this is not the case in cheating golden suits. The probability of golden suits appearing is higher than that of straights. Although the straight cards are more rare than golden suits, they are still not as big as golden suits.
According to this rule, we know that the probability of small golden flowers appearing is very small, and once golden flowers appear, the greater possibility is large golden flowers. Then if you have a small golden suit, and you basically decide that your opponent is also a golden suit, then even the golden suit has to fold. If you don't understand this rule, you will definitely be reluctant to discard the golden flower card.
Fraud Jinhua, to put it bluntly, is the feeling of heartbeat when Jinhua appears. So do you know the probability of various golden flowers appearing?
The probability of A gold appearing is 23.36%;
The probability of occurrence of K gold and above (K and A) is 43.07%;
The probability of appearing Q gold and above is 59.12%;
The probability of J gold and above is 71.90%;
The probability of appearing with 10 gold and above is 81.75%;
The probability of appearing 9 gold and above is 89.05%;
The probability of occurrence of 8 gold and above is 94.16%;
The probability of appearing 7 gold and above is 97.45%;
The probability of appearing 6 gold and above is 99.27%;
The probability of 5 gold and above is 100%.
It is impossible to appear smaller than 5 gold, only 234 smaller than 5 gold, once there is a 234 gold flower, it is a straight flush, which is what we often call a straight gold.
What can we see from this probability table? What kind of inspiration can we get? First of all, when the golden flower meets the golden flower, it is a very dangerous thing. For example, you got a "Gold", you think this should be not small, but according to the rate, if someone else is also a golden flower, the probability of others winning you should be more than half, which means that the gold is really nothing. . Both are golden flowers, only if you get K gold, the probability of winning will be higher.
Big, don't think that getting Q gold or J gold is anything special, there are more chances for others to be bigger than you!
If a player does not understand the probability problem, he will definitely have a wrong understanding. Take the author as an example, when he used to play cheating gold flowers, he was easily misled by the cards in his hand. The cards are very large, even if others are golden flowers, it is more difficult to be bigger than the queen of gold. But in fact, this is not the case. If others are also golden flowers, the probability of being bigger than Q gold is quite large.
Knowing this probability is very helpful for your actual combat. This is often the case in gold cheats, where there are only two players left at the end of the game, and the stacks on the table are very high. Everyone is very clear that the cards of these two players are at least above the golden flower, that is to say, there is no golden flower that will not play this. So, at such a decisive juncture, how to judge the cards in the opponent's hand, if the opponent is a golden flower, what kind of golden flower is it?
The probability of a leopard and a straight flush is very small, it only occurs once in two hundred decks, so it is unlikely. In fact, whether the opponent has caught the leopard or Shunjin can be judged from the appearance. Leopards and Shun Metals are in monster cards. If you get this kind of card, you will basically not lose. Once a player gets this kind of card, his expression will definitely be abnormal. As far as the author's experience is concerned, players who have won Leopard or Shunjin either tremble slightly when placing bets, or appear very restrained and dare not speak or do unnecessary actions, for fear of excessive words and harm.
Actions reveal the secrets of the cards.
When two players confront each other face to face, both sides can basically be sure that the opponent is at least Jinhua. In the case of uncertainty about the cards of both sides, if we are an objective researcher, what is the card with half the probability of winning or losing? After the probability calculation, Q14 is a critical card. That is to say, we got this card. , your odds of winning and losing are exactly 50/50.
In other words, if your hand is lower than the QJ4 golden suit, then you are very dangerous, and you will lose 80% of the time. Why do you say 80%? Didn't you just say that the probability of winning and losing is half? Winning or losing is half, that is on the basis of determining that the opponent is at least Jinhua, but in fact, at the end of the card battle, the table is full of chips. At this time, The other party is definitely not a small golden flower! Even if you don't understand the probability, you should be able to judge that the other party is at least K gold at this time, and it is very likely that it is KQ gold or A gold. So, our advice to you is, if you are king gold, open the card and don't spend it with him. If you are ace gold you can play two hands, and if your opponent doesn't show, then you have to show it quickly. Of course, whether to open or not also depends on the character of the opponent. If your opponent is a conservative, the sooner you open the better; if your opponent is the kind of belligerent who likes to go deep alone, play with him a little longer.
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